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Thread: NSD #1

  1. #181

    Default Re: NSD #1

    *pokes head into forum
    **shakes head disapprovingly
    ***sticks hands in pockets and whistles while walking away

  2. #182

    Default Re: NSD #1

    Quote Originally Posted by EagleNationRising View Post
    I believe the correct answer was, “I’m not your guy, pal”
    Well we did not start from the beginning so techinically "He's not your guy, friend" I think.

    Dirk E. Sanchez, Overyonder, GA 2001

    Quote Originally Posted by half-n-half View Post
    you missed JDC's point.

  3. #183

    Default Re: NSD #1

    Quote Originally Posted by JDC325 View Post
    Also didnt our shared conference champ get beat by a bad UMASS team this year? When you expand your focus instead of a few games things play out like they should...so weird. NDSU, again the FCS goes 9-89 against the FBS but good lord ONE team out of 130 wins better than expected and 9-89 means nothing...I mean really this is comical. So you have to convince me the 89 losses had nothing to do with talent and its alllll just coaching and development.
    Yes, it's one team out of 100+, but it's an entire team with dozens of players in it. Does NDSU have a magic 8-ball to find out who the outliers are among the guys with no FBS offers?

    Same thing with our 2011 class...when it's half the class it's not an "outlier" or a fluke.

    Your argument is like saying "so what if one guy won the lottery six times in a few years it's only 1 person out of hundreds of millions the vast majority of other people don't even win it once".

    What you have is exactly what you'd expect if recruiting ratings were just based on who recruits were offered.

    Quote Originally Posted by JDC325 View Post
    You are trying to base your arguments on anecdotal evidence weak evidence at that considering 7 guys out of an entire roster is supposed to mean something, 7 out performed their rankings slightly but the other 85-100+ did not.....Also you trying to make it if rankings are not 100% accurate they are worthless..That is just not true, if 1 out 4 five star kids become all americans but only 1 in 127 two stars do that is called CORRELATION and a strong one. The one out of 127 would be called an outlier since one out of 127 is .8%. If teams with rosters ranked in the bottom 25 only has one shared conference title and overall losing record and few bowls and or bowl wins that is a called a decent sample size and correlation not cherry picking one team out of 130+/- and our a handful of players off a roster who played well Elon and ULM but can barely get drafted. For every one McKinnion there are literally thousands of Gurley's that have went through the NFL that prove the rule not debunk it.
    You are basing your arguments on fallacious reasoning and strawmans. I do think that 4 star players are significantly more likely to get drafted and get drafted high than 3-stars. It's when when you get outside the bluebloods of college football is when it gradually starts to become a crapshoot.

    It's very easy to tell the difference between Alabama and Georgia Southern teams just by watching them. But watching us versus a lot of teams who finish 50-70 in recruiting class rankings every year, I don't see a big difference.
    Hey TK! Change the culture back!

    If you think TK is the reason we don't have better non-conference football schedules, see this post.

  4. Default Re: NSD #1

    It is quite possible that the 5 star deal is a self fulfilling prophecy. They get more attention, more personalized recruiting, more opportunities. Once you get to that level, more often than not the 2nd star gets left behind even though the raw talent is equivalent. Same with any other system in all walks of life. Get ranked early, or get left behind.

  5. #185

    Default Re: NSD #1

    Quote Originally Posted by BillyBob View Post
    Yes, it's one team out of 100+, but it's an entire team with dozens of players in it. Does NDSU have a magic 8-ball to find out who the outliers are among the guys with no FBS offers?

    Same thing with our 2011 class...when it's half the class it's not an "outlier" or a fluke.

    Your argument is like saying "so what if one guy won the lottery six times in a few years it's only 1 person out of hundreds of millions the vast majority of other people don't even win it once".

    What you have is exactly what you'd expect if recruiting ratings were just based on who recruits were offered.



    You are basing your arguments on fallacious reasoning and strawmans. I do think that 4 star players are significantly more likely to get drafted and get drafted high than 3-stars. It's when when you get outside the bluebloods of college football is when it gradually starts to become a crapshoot.

    It's very easy to tell the difference between Alabama and Georgia Southern teams just by watching them. But watching us versus a lot of teams who finish 50-70 in recruiting class rankings every year, I don't see a big difference.
    They have no FBS offers....that's weird this one has a P5 offer....https://247sports.com/Recruitment/Sa...cruitInterests..

    OMG Billy I literally post an article showing four stars get drafted more often and higher than three and you follow up with you dont think fours get drafted more than three....News flash five stars get drafted and more often and higher than fours as well, this will be mind blowing three stars get drafted at a higher RATE than two's...nucking futs. Is it that hard to read...http://www.sportsonearth.com/article...ospects-talent

    As far as the lottery not as dramatic as we are not talking about millions of recruits per year and our millions on rosters but I guess you would rather buy a scratch off ticket with a .8% chance of winning vs 25% of winning. Yes that is sound logic.

    I guess you dont see a big difference in the AAC and the Sun Belt, MAC or CUSA? Because the win loss column and conference rankings do...the AAC had a winning record against the MAC, CUSA, MW and Sun Belt. The MW gets better talent than CUSA, MAC and Sun Belt was ranked higher than CUSA, MAC and Sun Belt and only had a losing record against....the AAC shocker. The Sun Belt, MAC and CUSA are not that far apart from top to bottom the MAC has to top teams that do well but EMU is like 132nd in the rankings right now.

    Dirk E. Sanchez, Overyonder, GA 2001

    Quote Originally Posted by half-n-half View Post
    you missed JDC's point.

  6. #186

    Default Re: NSD #1

    Quote Originally Posted by StingingEagle View Post
    It is quite possible that the 5 star deal is a self fulfilling prophecy. They get more attention, more personalized recruiting, more opportunities. Once you get to that level, more often than not the 2nd star gets left behind even though the raw talent is equivalent. Same with any other system in all walks of life. Get ranked early, or get left behind.
    They get attention because they are balling out usually early on in high school. Justin Fields earned his ranking as everyone does, starting and putting up numbers draws attention and offers. Coaches dont go star rankings for offers, rankings are not based on offers. The offers back up the ranking more times than not. Saban has never been on 24/7 his offers back up where they are ranked.

    Dirk E. Sanchez, Overyonder, GA 2001

    Quote Originally Posted by half-n-half View Post
    you missed JDC's point.

  7. #187

    Default Re: NSD #1

    Quote Originally Posted by CC Eagle View Post
    *pokes head into forum
    **shakes head disapprovingly
    ***sticks hands in pockets and whistles while walking away
    Post of the day
    Laney Claxton
    BBA 1987

  8. #188

    Default Re: NSD #1

    Quote Originally Posted by JDC325 View Post
    They have no FBS offers....that's weird this one has a P5 offer....https://247sports.com/Recruitment/Sa...cruitInterests..

    OMG Billy I literally post an article showing four stars get drafted more often and higher than three and you follow up with you dont think fours get drafted more than three....News flash five stars get drafted and more often and higher than fours as well, this will be mind blowing three stars get drafted at a higher RATE than two's...nucking futs. Is it that hard to read...http://www.sportsonearth.com/article...ospects-talent
    Where did I say 4 stars aren't better on average than 3 stars?

    Quote Originally Posted by JDC325 View Post
    As far as the lottery not as dramatic as we are not talking about millions of recruits per year and our millions on rosters but I guess you would rather buy a scratch off ticket with a .8% chance of winning vs 25% of winning. Yes that is sound logic.
    I know the probabilities aren't the same, I was just using an exaggerated example to demonstrate the point.

    So lets take your 25% number as the assumed percentage of 2-stars that are 3-stars. Do you have any idea how small the chances are the NDSU's roster and our roster would be entire filled with "outliers". It's very small, and even if it happened it wouldn't be sustained.

    Quote Originally Posted by JDC325 View Post
    I guess you dont see a big difference in the AAC and the Sun Belt, MAC or CUSA? Because the win loss column and conference rankings do...the AAC had a winning record against the MAC, CUSA, MW and Sun Belt. The MW gets better talent than CUSA, MAC and Sun Belt was ranked higher than CUSA, MAC and Sun Belt. The Sun Belt, MAC and CUSA are not that far apart from top to bottom the MAC has to top teams that do well but EMU is like 132nd as well.
    Like I said, I see that the MAC's recruiting ratings tend to be higher than he Sun Belts yet they dominate them.
    Hey TK! Change the culture back!

    If you think TK is the reason we don't have better non-conference football schedules, see this post.

  9. #189

    Default Re: NSD #1

    Quote Originally Posted by GSU08 View Post
    If you get all 4 and 5 star players, you are guaranteed to have a more talented team than a team with 2 and 3 star guys.
    Depends I would say that 2 or 3 years of developing those 2 and 3 star guys and they can be justr ad talented. See us vs. Alabama. The 4 and 5 star kids are able to come in and contribute right away and normally more physically mature earlier in their careers.

  10. #190

    Default Re: NSD #1

    Quote Originally Posted by BillyBob View Post
    Where did I say 4 stars aren't better on average than 3 stars?



    I know the probabilities aren't the same, I was just using an exaggerated example to demonstrate the point.

    So lets take your 25% number as the assumed percentage of 2-stars that are 3-stars. Do you have any idea how small the chances are the NDSU's roster and our roster would be entire filled with "outliers". It's very small, and even if it happened it wouldn't be sustained.



    Like I said, I see that the MAC's recruiting ratings tend to be higher than he Sun Belts yet they dominate them.
    You just said you dont think four stars get drafted more often than three....if fours are not better than three how in God's green earth are they being drafted at a higher rate? You think NFL guys care about star rankings? Their drafting just proves the rankings more...

    Also it is not assumed % it is the percentage somebody did some simple math to figure it out...

    NDSU is still one out of 130 FCS team not matter how you want to harp on them, they are still an outlier. One divided by 130 again .8% so you are basing your beliefs on because .8% of FCS teams does really well then recruiting rankings are bad while I go off of 99.2% of FCS teams typical results against the FBS and I am and the rankings are wrong...and who of note have they beaten? Iowa? Then they lose to South Dakota state in the same season...we dominated the division for two decades and got our ***** handed to us most DIV 1A games....

    And no we dont dominate the MAC we barely play them and we usually go about .500 when we do they also finish higher normally in the rankings which takes in all OOC games not just a handful. They are not significantly higher like with the AAC which is the point. Just like not a lot of difference between low three star and a high two star but worlds of difference on average with a two star and four. Again you are trying to make it 100% or nothing so what if we slightly edge the MAC the talent gap just "tends" to edge us we dont line up and play every team in a round robing tournament if so more than likely they would win out there bad would likely beat our bad and our good probably splits. If we did that with the AAC that does have a clear talent advantage over us we would get our brains beat in.

    I guess if App beats Toledo it means the entire Sun Belt is better than the entire MAC and we just ignore all the other OOC games each conference has played?

    Dirk E. Sanchez, Overyonder, GA 2001

    Quote Originally Posted by half-n-half View Post
    you missed JDC's point.

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