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Thread: NSD #1

  1. #201

    Default Re: NSD #1

    Quote Originally Posted by ctowneagle View Post
    Your statement was that you are guaranteed tok have a more talented team if you have all 4 or 5 star players. Might be more talented on paper (how many stars they have), but that doesn't always translate to the field. That's the basis to this whole argument, scouting and recruiting is all a guessing game there are no guarantees. Also if you'd like another example see us vs. Florida.

    You have a much greater chance of having a better team. That fact cannot be debated. It has been proven over and over again.

    And again, taking 1 good game as proof of this, doesn't work.

  2. #202

    Default Re: NSD #1

    Quote Originally Posted by BillyBob View Post
    You apparently didn't read carefully enough or you're just making things up....here's what I just said earlier in this thread.

    Yeah just making it up "I do think that 4 star players are significantly more likely to get drafted and get drafted high than 3-stars." This statement is dead wrong....completley and utterly wrong.



    You either ignored what I said earlier or you don't understand it, you just repeated what you already said about NDSU being one out of 130 schools. Tell me again, do programs like NDSU, Georgia Southern, and App have magic 8 balls or professional psychics to know which 2-star guys are going to be 3-star guys? Because they have an awfully high number of "outliers" for it to be credible in my mind.

    That lends credence to what I've said all along that below the very highest rungs of college football ratings are just assigned based on who has offered. They see an NDSU commit and probably just say "FCS commit....2 stars" or "Sun Belt commit...2 stars unless they have multiple other FBS offers".



    Again with the strawman argument.
    No they dont and there players dont get drafted as much as teams with three and four star players...where are are those "outliers" you posted in the NFL today compared to the AL team we played? Also what did they do that was so special go 5-4 in the SoCon in 2013?

    NDSU gets the best talent the FCS can attract and so did GS they dominated the FCS for the most part but for every mediocre Big10 win NDSU has they have an FCS loss. If NDSU was in the Big10 they would likely come in last every single year. Same if we were in the SEC during our FCS prime. Again where are all these "outliers" on NFL rosters? Also learn that three star is a wide ranking not a one size fits all. Not much difference in a low three and basic two and even unranked player but a high three is likely fielding numerous P5 offers. Four and five are more tightly grouped.




    Also offers play zero role for most evaluators, I posted and article where they interviewed actual site evaluators only ONE said he gives about 10% credence to who is offering....Everyone said they go off tape, stats and camp results before giving a grade. I guess they are just liars.

    It is not strawman you stated we "own" the MAC that was false but you are basing that off a few head to head wins ignoring what the entire conference did against the rest of the FBS and FCS so not a lot of difference in 1-0 and 4-3 like we did in 2015 when I guess you think we "owned" them it is a difference of 1 win..

    So all your evidence is one all time FCS team that beat mediocre Big10 teams and a handfull of players that did well in the FCS and Sun Belt vs 260+/- FCS and FBS teams and the thousands upon thousands of players that end up about what their ratings and roster ratings say they will do....keep buying those .8% winning scratch offs I will look for the ones that pay out closer to 25%.

    The FCS went 9-89 against the FBS why? Why do folks hold up the 9 eqaul to the 89...it has little to do with coaching. We did we get our heads kicked a lot and lose every DIV 1A game before UF with Erk, PJ, Monken and Fritz coaching us? Every team we played had better coaching and development....every single one but UF?
    Dirk E. Sanchez, Overyonder, GA 2001

    Quote Originally Posted by half-n-half View Post
    you missed JDC's point.

  3. #203

    Default Re: NSD #1

    Quote Originally Posted by BillyBob View Post
    And these right here demonstrate another huge problem with recruiting rankings. Are different people evaluating Georgia Southern's players versus App States versus Toledo's and Bowling Green's? If so, it's a complete crapshoot. In science it's frowned upon to take objective measurements like blood pressure at different sites with different people and combining them into one study. With something subjective as judging a small cross-section of a recruits play time to give a "star" rating you've got something not even close to being scientific.
    Actually it is scientific because actual scientist, business professors and students have run the numbers and wrote research papers proving it....that I posted...that you refuse to give credence to or read...because NDSU beat Kansas and Swope had a good game once against AL and did well against Elon, Wofford, Samford, WCU and UTC...I also ran basic results on a spread sheet of the bottom 25 ranked rosters in 2016, losing records and one shared conf title.. Should I run the numbers on the top ranked G5 teams since rankings dont matter at the G5 level or can we assume and or use common sense the rest of the G5 conference titles are there, they have a overall winning record and most of the bowl appearance and bowl wins? Probably just pure luck it will come out that way.
    Dirk E. Sanchez, Overyonder, GA 2001

    Quote Originally Posted by half-n-half View Post
    you missed JDC's point.

  4. #204

    Default Re: NSD #1

    Well, if a select few evaluators said they don't evaluate based on offers, that's good enough for me. Actually, they don't even have to consciously be doing it, you know...unconscious bias can be really powerful.

    It's not just NDSU, BTW. it's also arguably JMU. Those two teams are clearly in a class of their own in a way you don't ever see in the FBS.

    The fact remains that if recruiting rankings were as precise as you say they are then those teams and Georgia Southern's, App State's, and Troy's and Ark State's ratings would be higher.

    And I'm not going to go digging through years of game results and recruiting rankings to get a precise comparison of the SBC to the MAC, but I have seen more than enough SBC non-conference games of SBC teams beating non-SBC teams. From Ark State running UCF off to the field to us beating the brakes off of BGSU and WMU to App State beating Toledo to Georgia State beating WKU. All of those losing teams were generally better in terms of recruiting rankings.

    BTW, did you read E22's post earlier? That right there should cast some serious doubt on the process of recruiting class evaluation below the elite college football programs. And from someone who actually ran a Rivals site to boot.
    Don't choose to be annoyed. Choose to be amused.

    If you think TK is the reason we don't have better non-conference football schedules, see this post.

  5. #205

    Default Re: NSD #1

    Quote Originally Posted by GSU08 View Post
    You have a much greater chance of having a better team. That fact cannot be debated. It has been proven over and over again.

    And again, taking 1 good game as proof of this, doesn't work.
    That's two good games.

  6. #206
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    Default Re: NSD #1

    How about the fact that the NFL is full of 2 and 3 stars? I believe more than the 5 stars? Percentage wise there is less 5's obviously (30 is the typical max). Whereas there are hundreds if not thousands of 2/3 stars.
    No longer eating crow for saying "The TO is gone get over it!!"

  7. #207

    Default Re: NSD #1

    Quote Originally Posted by BillyBob View Post
    Well, if a select few evaluators said they don't evaluate based on offers, that's good enough for me. Actually, they don't even have to consciously be doing it, you know...unconscious bias can be really powerful.

    It's not just NDSU, BTW. it's also arguably JMU. Those two teams are clearly in a class of their own in a way you don't ever see in the FBS.

    The fact remains that if recruiting rankings were as precise as you say they are then those teams and Georgia Southern's, App State's, and Troy's and Ark State's ratings would be higher.

    And I'm not going to go digging through years of game results and recruiting rankings to get a precise comparison of the SBC to the MAC, but I have seen more than enough SBC non-conference games of SBC teams beating non-SBC teams. From Ark State running UCF off to the field to us beating the brakes off of BGSU and WMU to App State beating Toledo to Georgia State beating WKU. All of those losing teams were generally better in terms of recruiting rankings.

    BTW, did you read E22's post earlier? That right there should cast some serious doubt on the process of recruiting class evaluation below the elite college football programs. And from someone who actually ran a Rivals site to boot.
    I saw the post. That was also 11 years ago or more? More scouts, more evaluators, more camps (like WAY WAY more), social media, recruiting promotors & sites, etc... . There is more of a chance I get in a wreck in my driveway than a prospect that plays any sort high(ish) level of competitive football to go completely discounted.

    I'm sorry, but some of you have your head in the sand.

    This is a classic case of the bad side of the argument so all the chicken little's are agreeing. If we had 15 3 stars, everyone would be dancing in the streets talking about the stars. WHen you don't have them, you get player development conversations and stars don't matter conversations. It is what fans on the bad side of the coin say.
    Dr. Tredell Dorsey, Esq., Black Belt, and motivational speaker

  8. #208

    Default Re: NSD #1

    Quote Originally Posted by BillyBob View Post
    Well, if a select few evaluators said they don't evaluate based on offers, that's good enough for me. Actually, they don't even have to consciously be doing it, you know...unconscious bias can be really powerful.

    It's not just NDSU, BTW. it's also arguably JMU. Those two teams are clearly in a class of their own in a way you don't ever see in the FBS.

    The fact remains that if recruiting rankings were as precise as you say they are then those teams and Georgia Southern's, App State's, and Troy's and Ark State's ratings would be higher.

    And I'm not going to go digging through years of game results and recruiting rankings to get a precise comparison of the SBC to the MAC, but I have seen more than enough SBC non-conference games of SBC teams beating non-SBC teams. From Ark State running UCF off to the field to us beating the brakes off of BGSU and WMU to App State beating Toledo to Georgia State beating WKU. All of those losing teams were generally better in terms of recruiting rankings.

    BTW, did you read E22's post earlier? That right there should cast some serious doubt on the process of recruiting class evaluation below the elite college football programs. And from someone who actually ran a Rivals site to boot.
    So two out of 130+ you win lol the fact still remains the FCS is 9-89 against the FBS and the numbers against the G5 are not much better that is directly attributable to talent more than anything else. Also how precise have I said they are lol. The most I have ever said is recruiting is the most important thing in college football not the ONLY thing and the talent you get is highly correlated with what you can expect on the field. All true and indisputable and it holds true for the majority of G5 teams and conferences for that matter. I have actually taken time to put basic win loss stats in a simple spread sheet to prove it. If these rankings did not matter for the G5 why did the lowest ranked G5 rosters in 2016 have a losing record, few bowls, and one conference title? Just pure luck? 2017 on 24/7 is jacked up so cant run the numbers.

    Also who in the hell has the Sun Belt beat to say we or our players should be higher? Crappy CUSA teams? App lost to UMASS. our glorious conf champ. The Sun Belt is 13-33 OOC with seven wins coming from FCS teams. We are the lowest ranked conference by far this year or tie at best with crappy CUSA at 4-4 Also upset is in the dictionary for a reason. Troy beat LSU you want to put down $1000 on Troy if they played them again tomorrow? If so I'll take LSU minus 10 all day. This is the same team that lost to USA but only the Troy game matters right like NDUS beating a mediocre Big10 once but turning around and losing to SDSU...

    So you are not going to waste your time going through actual results to see if you are right lol.....If you actually took the time to look at the results you would actually be proven wrong one win is not more weighted than a loss. We went 3-4 against the MAC in 2015 and are 4-4 against CUSA this year so far...UCF would beat any Sun Belt team by three touchdowns easily this year. So the win against WMU is better than the loss the following year...it does not get more scientific than that folks.
    Dirk E. Sanchez, Overyonder, GA 2001

    Quote Originally Posted by half-n-half View Post
    you missed JDC's point.

  9. #209

    Default Re: NSD #1

    Quote Originally Posted by ctowneagle View Post
    That's two good games.

    so west ga has a roster as good as what we had in FCS then, right?

  10. #210

    Default Re: NSD #1

    Quote Originally Posted by 1peatfor7 View Post
    How about the fact that the NFL is full of 2 and 3 stars? I believe more than the 5 stars? Percentage wise there is less 5's obviously (30 is the typical max). Whereas there are hundreds if not thousands of 2/3 stars.
    Well basic stats will tell you if the population sizes are different you cant go off raw numbers....The odds of a five star making the NFL are astronomically higher than a two or three. You could not have more than probably three teams if you just depended on five stars to fill the NFL ranks.

    A five-star recruit had a three-in-five chance of getting drafted (16 of 27).
    A four-star had a one-in-five chance (77 of 395).
    A three-star had a one-in-18 chance (92 of 1,644).
    A two-star/unrated recruit had a one-in-34 chance (71 of 2,434).

    Yep worthless....This takes out the G5 vs P5 argument all together.

    Four- and five-star recruits were 995 percent more likely to be drafted in the first round than their lesser-ranked counterparts. I mean I am no math wizard but 995% seems pretty solid that most players were rated fairly accurately.

    https://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...tars-two-stars

    Again obviously 71 two stars or below out of 2434 did better than expected the point is do you want to try and find and try an hit on 71 out of 2434 or 92 out of 1644 or better. This proves one the rankings are not 100% which nobody ever said they were and two they are not "worthless" and very reliable for MOST players not ALL but MOST as 71<2363 last I checked. But I know NDSU beat Iowa.....
    Dirk E. Sanchez, Overyonder, GA 2001

    Quote Originally Posted by half-n-half View Post
    you missed JDC's point.

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