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Thread: Defensive Secondary needs a nickname

  1. Default Re: Defensive Secondary needs a nickname

    Quote Originally Posted by GATAlac El Dorado View Post
    Is this a bona fide metric? Ratio of incompletions due to break ups/int's to . . . what? Total incompletions? In passing situations only? This may mean something or it may not. Seems like it needs to be taken in the context of # of incompletions or opponent's completion %, no? I mean, isn't this ratio going to be higher if the other team has fewer missed throws and fewer drops? You cold have most of your (potentially few) incompletions due to breakups or int's and still get absolutely dominated, statistically speaking. No knock on our D here, just not sure if I understand this measurement.
    It's one of Connelly's metrics:

    PD-to-INC
    A defensive personality stat, this looks at the percentage of an opponent's incomplete passes that you either intercepted or broke up. This isn't necessarily a quality stat, just a look at general aggressiveness levels.
    It just shows that our DBs were in position to get their hands on a lot of passes.

  2. #42

    Default Re: Defensive Secondary needs a nickname

    Quote Originally Posted by Klak View Post
    It's one of Connelly's metrics:



    It just shows that our DBs were in position to get their hands on a lot of passes.
    Gotcha. Except I still don't think it shows that, unless it's normalized for a bunch of other variables. What WOULD show that is the ratio of PD-to-pass attempts.

  3. #43

    Default Re: Defensive Secondary needs a nickname

    Quote Originally Posted by GATAlac El Dorado View Post
    Gotcha. Except I still don't think it shows that, unless it's normalized for a bunch of other variables. What WOULD show that is the ratio of PD-to-pass attempts.
    I calculated that by pasting from cfbstats to excel. We were in the top 10 or so in the country and #1 in the Sun Belt there. That means we were higher than App's "Legion of Boone".
    Don't choose to be annoyed. Choose to be amused.

    If you think TK is the reason we don't have better non-conference football schedules, see this post.

  4. #44

    Default Re: Defensive Secondary needs a nickname

    Quote Originally Posted by BillyBob View Post
    I calculated that by pasting from cfbstats to excel. We were in the top 10 or so in the country and #1 in the Sun Belt there. That means we were higher than App's "Legion of Boone".
    On PD/PA? That's impressive. Of course it seems* we were also pretty high in the 'wide open guy catches pass and scores from 40+ untouched on obvious coverage assignment or scheme breakdown' metric, but that's just anecdotal.

  5. Default Re: Defensive Secondary needs a nickname

    Quote Originally Posted by GATAlac El Dorado View Post
    On PD/PA? That's impressive. Of course it seems* we were also pretty high in the 'wide open guy catches pass and scores from 40+ untouched on obvious coverage assignment or scheme breakdown' metric, but that's just anecdotal.
    We were 45th nationally (#2 in conference) in number of 10+ yard passes allowed (102 all season... #1 in conference App gave up 95).

    However, we were 114th nationally (tied for #10 in conference) in number of 40+ yard passes allowed (15 all season, #1 in conference NMSU gave up 5).

    So MOST of the time we played good pass defense, but when we blew it, we blew it big time.

    Historically, I've got this data loaded on GATAdb back through 2004 and 2017 is the worst for giving up big plays. Interestingly, 2016 only gave up 6 pass plays over 40 yards (with basically the same number of 10+ plays allowed), so something definitely was broken (help over the top?).

    https://gatadb.com/reports/62/forty_plus/asc/
    Last edited by Klak; 7th August 2018 at 12:10 PM.

  6. #46

    Default Re: Defensive Secondary needs a nickname

    Quote Originally Posted by Klak View Post
    We were 45th nationally (#2 in conference) in number of 10+ yard passes allowed (102 all season... #1 in conference App gave up 95).

    However, we were 114th nationally (tied for #10 in conference) in number of 40+ yard passes allowed (15 all season, #1 in conference NMSU gave up 5).

    So MOST of the time we played good pass defense, but when we blew it, we blew it big time.
    The numbers in passing YPP are certainly not good, that has to be admitted. But how do you reconcile that with us having (1) the lowest defensive completion percentage in the conference and (2) a high ratio of defended passes to passes attempted against? we faced Indiana, Auburn, NMSU, Ark State, Troy, and Georgia State. Not an easy go for a secondary.

    You could try to say the DBs are too aggressive and give up big plays trying to make an interception, but I just haven't seen that and I think most here would agree with me. I've seen our secondary look like they don't know who is supposed to cover who, I've seen linebackers covering athletic opposing receivers, and I've seen opponent offenses exploit reckless blitzing.

    A couple of months ago I mentioned I thought the 2017 team was more watchable than 2006 and infinitely more watchable than 2009 because the 2017 team had guys who could make plays. The stats would appear to back up having a good secondary that's just not overly well coached.
    Don't choose to be annoyed. Choose to be amused.

    If you think TK is the reason we don't have better non-conference football schedules, see this post.

  7. #47

    Default Re: Defensive Secondary needs a nickname

    Quote Originally Posted by Klak View Post
    We were 45th nationally (#2 in conference) in number of 10+ yard passes allowed (102 all season... #1 in conference App gave up 95).

    However, we were 114th nationally (tied for #10 in conference) in number of 40+ yard passes allowed (15 all season, #1 in conference NMSU gave up 5).

    So MOST of the time we played good pass defense, but when we blew it, we blew it big time.

    Historically, I've got this data loaded on GATAdb back through 2004 and 2017 is the worst for giving up big plays. Interestingly, 2016 only gave up 6 pass plays over 40 yards (with basically the same number of 10+ plays allowed), so something definitely was broken (help over the top?).

    https://gatadb.com/reports/62/forty_plus/asc/
    At times last season we sent in the 3 Stooges, those were the times a defender wasn't 20 yards in the area of the wideout. "Mo, Larry, the cheese, Mo, Larry, the cheese." or " Niagara Falls, slowly I turn, step by step......"

  8. #48

    Default Re: Defensive Secondary needs a nickname

    Quote Originally Posted by garns 4 View Post
    At times last season we sent in the 3 Stooges, those were the times a defender wasn't 20 yards in the area of the wideout. "Mo, Larry, the cheese, Mo, Larry, the cheese." or " Niagara Falls, slowly I turn, step by step......"
    NIAGARA FALLS!!!

  9. #49

    Default Re: Defensive Secondary needs a nickname

    Quote Originally Posted by GATAlac El Dorado View Post
    NIAGARA FALLS!!!
    I thought some of you older gentlemen would like that.

  10. #50
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    Default Re: Defensive Secondary needs a nickname

    Quote Originally Posted by BillyBob View Post
    The numbers in passing YPP are certainly not good, that has to be admitted. But how do you reconcile that with us having (1) the lowest defensive completion percentage in the conference and (2) a high ratio of defended passes to passes attempted against? we faced Indiana, Auburn, NMSU, Ark State, Troy, and Georgia State. Not an easy go for a secondary.

    You could try to say the DBs are too aggressive and give up big plays trying to make an interception, but I just haven't seen that and I think most here would agree with me. I've seen our secondary look like they don't know who is supposed to cover who, I've seen linebackers covering athletic opposing receivers, and I've seen opponent offenses exploit reckless blitzing.

    A couple of months ago I mentioned I thought the 2017 team was more watchable than 2006 and infinitely more watchable than 2009 because the 2017 team had guys who could make plays. The stats would appear to back up having a good secondary that's just not overly well coached.
    One thing that Connelly has spoken of is referring to big plays as the "three point shot" of college football. In the past he's argued that winning the explosiveness battle would mean you're the "better" team, but the stats are starting to show that success rate rules all.

    That's one thing App has done extremely well since their transition, even when they weren't able to be explosive they just ground on you on both offense and defense.

    It's also where chinks in our armor showed up in 2015. Our success rate went down from 2014 but we kept up the big plays. The difference was our defense was damn good and minimized success rate as well as explosiveness from other teams....except in the obvious cases.

    What happened last year is playing most passing defenses pretty well, but then we had games where we had a performance akin to a team letting Stephen Curry rain 3's.

    In 2014/2015 we did an amazing job at limiting success rate of other teams and getting them off schedule, so they had to try and force plays. The last 2 years we were actually pretty good on 3rd downs and in obvious passing situations for opposing teams, but the problem was getting them into that position. It used to be basically a wasted play to run the ball on us, because you weren't going to get anything, and we were going to force you to air it out. We've got to get back to that.


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