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Thread: Cure Bowl versus Tulane

  1. #31

    Default Re: Cure Bowl versus Tulane

    Quote Originally Posted by Eskimojoe View Post
    Their schedules look no different. Another falsehood
    One of the first things PJ did at Navy was to make it a priortity to schedule more winnable games. He was very candid about making the Navy schedule easier when he took the job.

  2. #32

    Default Re: Cure Bowl versus Tulane

    Quote Originally Posted by OneMoreTime View Post
    One of the first things PJ did at Navy was to make it a priortity to schedule more winnable games. He was very candid about making the Navy schedule easier when he took the job.
    Well, this is circular.
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  3. #33

    Default Re: Cure Bowl versus Tulane

    Quote Originally Posted by pete4256 View Post
    I agree, of course.

    Here's a related question: when did Navy join the AAC? I know they made a big run a couple of years ago, but has their success rate changed since they joined a conference (vs being independent)?
    2015 was their first year playing in the AAC. I think that bought them a lot of scheduling credibility versus being an independent. Monken has done the same thing at Army since he got there- I think it was his first year they played 2 FCS teams (including one on the road) but since then their strength of schedule has gone up:

    Army Strength of Schedule:
    2012- 102
    2013- 117
    2014- 117
    2015- 113
    2016- 129
    2017- 81
    2018- 60

    Navy Strength of Schedule:
    2012 (Independent)- 94
    2013 (Independent)- 77
    2014 (Independent)- 76
    2015 (AAC)- 68
    2016 (AAC)- 70
    2017 (AAC)- 59
    2018 (AAC)- 77

  4. #34

    Default Re: Cure Bowl versus Tulane

    They joined the AAC in 2015. Here are there records since and the 5 years before just for reference -

    2010 - 9-4 (independent)
    2011 - 5-7 (independent)
    2012 - 8-5 (independent)
    2013 - 9-4 (independent)
    2014 - 8-5 (independent)
    2015 - 11-2 (AAC)
    2016 - 9-5 (AAC)
    2017 - 7-6 (AAC)
    2018 - 2-7 (AAC)

    reference - https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...avy/index.html

  5. #35

    Default Re: Cure Bowl versus Tulane

    Quote Originally Posted by pete4256 View Post
    I agree, of course.

    Here's a related question: when did Navy join the AAC? I know they made a big run a couple of years ago, but has their success rate changed since they joined a conference (vs being independent)?
    They moved in 2015

    AAC Conference Records:

    2015 7-1 (11-2 overall, most wins ever)
    2016 7-1
    2017 4-4
    2018 1-4 (yikes!)

    I don't follow them closely enough to know what their roster looks like, but they're certainly due for a 'cyclical' bump in the road. Plus, we all know of the personal struggles Ivin Jasper has had to deal with over the last couple of years, although I don't know if that's affected them. Could be they've just been 'figured out' by their competition, although if that were the case you would assume it would have happened sooner than this (plus the increasing success of CJM at Army would seem to run contrary to that notion). Either way, I've always stated that their level of success, and the sustained consistency of it, is the model for what I think we should aspire to. From '03 to '17, their .655 winning % puts them in the top 20 or so of FBS programs over that period.

    Edit: got beat to the punch on the conference stats
    GATAlac's First Law of the Interwebs: "As a thread on GSUfans grows longer, the probability of devolving into a debate on the flex approaches 1"

  6. #36

    Default Re: Cure Bowl versus Tulane

    Quote Originally Posted by GATAlac El Dorado View Post
    Could be they've just been 'figured out' by their competition, although if that were the case you would assume it would have happened sooner than this (plus the increasing success of CJM at Army would seem to run contrary to that notion).
    Perhaps the other teams didnt have the personnel to match the scheme in order to stop them, but have now been able to recruit and gameplan around successful defenses that have stopped it?

  7. #37

    Default Re: Cure Bowl versus Tulane

    Quote Originally Posted by GATAlac El Dorado View Post
    They moved in 2015

    AAC Conference Records:

    2015 7-1 (11-2 overall, most wins ever)
    2016 7-1
    2017 4-4
    2018 1-4 (yikes!)

    I don't follow them closely enough to know what their roster looks like, but they're certainly due for a 'cyclical' bump in the road. Plus, we all know of the personal struggles Ivin Jasper has had to deal with over the last couple of years, although I don't know if that's affected them. Could be they've just been 'figured out' by their competition, although if that were the case you would assume it would have happened sooner than this (plus the increasing success of CJM at Army would seem to run contrary to that notion). Either way, I've always stated that their level of success, and the sustained consistency of it, is the model for what I think we should aspire to. From '03 to '17, their .655 winning % puts them in the top 20 or so of FBS programs over that period.

    Edit: got beat to the punch on the conference stats
    I agree with you about sustaining success through "system." IMO, that was the common denominator (along with recruiting good talent) for GS's success from 1990-2015.

    I do, however, see some potential downsides to the flex. One of them involves conference play. It's possible that seeing the offense every year gives DCs an advantage over time. IMO, that was a real issue for us in 2011-13, when we played down to our conference opponents far too often. All defenses in our conference were seeing variations on flex/option three times a season.

    That said, it's difficult to support this idea with "actual" evidence.

    But I know from VMI and The Citadel that the flex/option isn't a magical cure-all for crappy programs like Kansas.
    Last edited by pete4256; 7th November 2018 at 10:56 AM.
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  8. #38

    Default Re: Cure Bowl versus Tulane

    Quote Originally Posted by PowerEagle View Post
    Perhaps the other teams didnt have the personnel to match the scheme in order to stop them, but have now been able to recruit and gameplan around successful defenses that have stopped it?
    I think one could make a case that the flex/option is largely dependent on experience/talent cycles.

    Look at Tech to see the difference between "transition years" and years in which they have a very talented senior class (2014, 2016).

    Navy's going through some of that right now. For all of the hype around Malcolm Perry, he wasn't a successful QB this season.
    The Cliffs of Insanity
    #newsflash
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  9. #39

    Default Re: Cure Bowl versus Tulane

    Quote Originally Posted by pete4256 View Post
    I agree with you about sustaining success through "system." IMO, that was the common denominator (along with recruiting good talent) for GS's success from 1990-2015.

    I do, however, see some potential downsides to the flex. One of them involves conference play. It's possible that seeing the offense every year gives DCs an advantage over time. IMO, that was a real issue for us in 2011-13, when we played down to our conference opponents far too often. All defenses in our conference were seeing variations on flex/option three times a season.

    That said, it's difficult to support this idea with "actual" evidence.

    But I know from VMI and The Citadel that the flex/option isn't a magical cure-all for crappy programs like Kansas.
    Don't see it, honestly.

    The offense improved from 2011 to 2012 in spite of a lot of new OL and not being as good a slotback, and no one will ever be able to convince me that 2013 was anything but a throw-away year for Monken and Brent Davis to experiment with different things.

    IMO you can know how to scheme against the offense, but if you have players who have never played against it I'm not sure how much good it is.
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  10. #40

    Default Re: Cure Bowl versus Tulane

    Part of the success of the flex is also heavily predicated on playcalling. It's not as simple as "Option left, option right, option left, option right, pass, option left...rinse repeat". There are a lot of nuances in understanding how different playcalls attack defenses and being able to move the defense around to exploit large gaps in space. PJ was a master of that when he was here, which is why we had so many explosive plays. Monken/Davis were good at this, at times, but I think a large part of their success was that we just out-athleted a lot of our competition.

    As defenses have evolved and the Shotgun Spread offense and prevalence of zone read concepts have expanded through college football, defenses have gotten faster and quicker and it's become easier for defenders to know how to 'read' an option offense and play assignment football (not saying they're more successful, but the concepts are becoming more common). Also, as we've experienced ourselves, a bad FBS football team isnt nearly as bad fundamentally or athletically as a bad FCS team. So the competition is smarter and better these days, which means its a tougher road to hoe. It also makes the success they have that much more impressive.

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