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Thread: CCL and his onside kicks...

  1. #91
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Snellville, GA
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    8,986

    Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Quote Originally Posted by jcountry View Post
    You are correct.

    The predictive value of our past decade is not determinative.

    But I’m mainly thinking it just wasn’t worth the risk at that point. It’s something we have never been good at, and I’m seeing us eat it too many times (100%.). Its a desperation play, not a surprise play.

    Hopefully CL will steer clear from this going forward. Save the last ditch efforts for last ditch situations. “Would have been great if it worked” sounds too much like “we won the seconds quarter.”
    Down by 4 with 45 seconds left to play in the game and everyone on TV and in the stands knowing you are going to do it is a "desperation play". Seeing your opponent do something wrong and game planning to try to take advantage of it is NOT a "desperation play".

    In my opinion, the OK in this case was no different than watching a safety bite hard over and over again on the TO and then running the same formation except this time stepping back and dropping a bomb over his head to the slot. Low probability, but you saw your opponent do something that you thought was going to give you an advantage and tried to take advantage of it.

    I would have been worried if CCL's answer to the question of why he did it was, "I don't know. It seemed like it would be fun to try it out". Instead, he had a well reasoned, logical explanation for why he did it. I'm fine with that regardless of the outcome of the kick.
    Anything worth shooting is worth shooting twice. Ammo is cheap. Life is expensive

  2. Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Quote Originally Posted by jcountry View Post
    You are correct.

    The predictive value of our past decade is not determinative.

    But I’m mainly thinking it just wasn’t worth the risk at that point. It’s something we have never been good at, and I’m seeing us eat it too many times (100%.). Its a desperation play, not a surprise play.

    Hopefully CL will steer clear from this going forward. Save the last ditch efforts for last ditch situations. “Would have been great if it worked” sounds too much like “we won the seconds quarter.”

    After that TD, this was definitely the wrong time to try something like this onside. Momentum got crushed and we really didn’t get it back for the rest of the game. We lost a whole lot more mojo than we stood to gain.
    "Past decade is not determinative" yet you're still clinging to it not being "something we have never been good at?" And, your seeing "us eat it too many times" when you didn't even know how many times that was until recently? Wow, smh.

  3. Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Quote Originally Posted by EAGLEMAN View Post
    "Past decade is not determinative" yet you're still clinging to it not being "something we have never been good at?" And, your seeing "us eat it too many times" when you didn't event know how many times that was until recently? Wow, smh.
    Maybe you should research the definitions of words like “determinative” and “probability.”

    I don’t care to research stats. I’ve watched enough GS football to know we have never been good at an OK.

    (if you could whip out a 60% success rate, I would change my mind.)

  4. Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Quote Originally Posted by jcountry View Post
    Maybe you should research the definitions of words like “determinative” and “probability.”

    I don’t care to research stats. I’ve watched enough GS football to know we have never been good at an OK.

    (if you could whip out a 60% success rate, I would change my mind.)
    What team has 60% success rate at it in a 10 year span? Glad you're not our coach or a coach period.

  5. #95

    Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Quote Originally Posted by KJ Eagle View Post
    Let's say in the previous 10 years we attempted two on side kicks. If the wikipedia probability is correct, we had a 60% chance that each of those would be successful, and we had a 40% chance that they were not. Just because those two specific attempts failed does not mean that we don't have the same 60% chance of success on a third attempt Saturday. We could be 0-5 and Team X could be 5-5 on kicks. But there is still a 60% chance that the next attempt by either team is successful. Team X doesn't automatically have a 100% chance that it is successful just because they are 5-5 previously.
    Great effort, but I fear it will be in vain.

    Quote Originally Posted by jcountry View Post

    But I’m mainly thinking it just wasn’t worth the risk at that point. It’s something we have never been good at, and I’m seeing us eat it too many times (100%.). Its a desperation play, not a surprise play.
    See what I mean.

    Hail southern
    A fool uttereth all his mind: but a wise man keepeth it in till afterwards.
    Proverbs 29:11

  6. #96

    Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Quote Originally Posted by Pike51 View Post
    Let me tell y'all a story...

    When I was in college, I used to ask every hot girl I saw out. 9 times out of 10, they said no. But that 10th time... they said HELL NO!
    But would you have asked out that hot girl if doing so caused you to lose the decent girl you already had lined up?

    Not me. Bird in the hand and all.
    Thanks, Rastabot!
    www.247sports.com/porkchops

  7. Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    I prefer the ones who say “hell no.”

    Probability of falling on that one is low, but damnit the upside is just so attractive!

  8. #98
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
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    The 19th Hole
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    13,682

    Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Quote Originally Posted by pete4256 View Post
    But would you have asked out that hot girl if doing so caused you to lose the decent girl you already had lined up?

    Not me. Bird in the hand and all.
    You call it a bird? I guess that's a nice way to say pecker.

  9. #99

    Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Quote Originally Posted by jcountry View Post
    Maybe you should research the definitions of words like “determinative” and “probability.”

    I don’t care to research stats. I’ve watched enough GS football to know we have never been good at an OK.

    (if you could whip out a 60% success rate, I would change my mind.)
    Just so we’re clear, is it a.) a perpetual curse on this program, b.) the general statistical probability associated with the play, or c.) your belief in the inability of the current roster and staff to execute it?

    If it’s a, that’s absurd.

    If it’s b, then you should be arguing that no team should ever do it, which you’re not. Also, it’s been debunked pretty thoroughly here: http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/201...e-onside-kick/
    by someone who does care to look up stats.

    If it’s c, then you wouldn’t keep making reference to a and b as support for your argument.
    Sincerely,
    Irwin M. Fletcher

    P.S.: Have a nice day!

  10. #100

    Default Re: CCL and his onside kicks...

    Quote Originally Posted by Pike51 View Post
    You call it a bird? I guess that's a nice way to say pecker.
    Isn’t that what Canadians call theirs?
    Thanks, Rastabot!
    www.247sports.com/porkchops

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